Draft Thoughts

[chjoak]

I would like to preface this by says that a number of things could change during the combine. This is just a few things I have been thinking about lately based on current information.


I believe it is a general consensus that the Texans biggest needs are on D with those primary needs being LDE, SS/FS & SLB. I've been thinking about the 1st & 2nd pick lately and the more I think about it the more I believe we won't pick DE in the first no matter who falls. Before you scream blasphemy, hear me out...

All the DEs with 1st round grade are all built for RDE or 3-4 OLB. Our true need is an LDE (bigger stronger bull rusher vs speed end) as it would be foolish to move Mario to LDE where he would be less effective. If we were to draft a speed end to play LDE, it would have to be as a situational pass rusher because a speed end at LDE would get eaten up in run defense. I think it is far more likely that we snag a better LDE fit (Paul Kruger, Tyson Jackson, Robert Ayers) in the 2nd/3rd round or a pass rushing specialist (Phillip Hunt, Stryker Sulak, Lawrence Sidbury, Nick Reed) in later rounds.

That being said, I think our 1st round pick ends up being a SLB. My logic is that there are no SS/FS that are worthy of 15 and if Dunta is resigned there is no need for CB this high. Although this a reasonably deep draft for LB, I think it may be the highest value when we draft.

Personally I am ok with a LB. Adibi & Diles have shown flashes but both have had injury issues and our depth at LB is not good enough to pick up the slack if they show to be just a flash in the pan. I would ideally prefer that they trade down in the 20s since Curry will likely be gone. Based on things I'm reading I am really starting to like Clay Matthews. He has the right size/build, has a great pedigree (both father & uncle were 19yr NFL vets) and he plays with tons of heart.

I'm not going to speculate on any trade down scenarios but if we could somehow pull a draft like the following to go with a couple FA signings I would be rather happy:

1 - Clay Matthews SLB
2 - Patrick Chung SS/FS
3 - Andy Levitre OG, Eric Wood C
4 - Robert Ayers DE, Derrick Walker DE, Phillip Hunt DE
5 - Andre Brown RB, Gartrell Johnson RB
6 - BPA
7 - BPA

[greedimidi]

I think it is far more likely that we snag a better LDE fit (Paul Kruger, Tyson Jackson, Robert Ayers) in the 2nd/3rd round or a pass rushing specialist (Phillip Hunt, Stryker Sulak, Lawrence Sidbury, Nick Reed) in later rounds.


what? not aaron maybin? i think steelbtexan and musicman just passed out!.........i agree with you. most of the first round pass rushing prospects are more suited for a 3-4 defense. we already have 3 first rounders making big bucks on our d-line....a fourth would put us in a cap bind, not immediately but in a couple of years. imo, there is not much of a drop off in 4-3 DE talent between the first and later round prospects. we can find our pass rusher in later rounds.

[musicman8251]

I would like to preface this by says that a number of things could change during the combine. This is just a few things I have been thinking about lately based on current information.


I believe it is a general consensus that the Texans biggest needs are on D with those primary needs being LDE, SS/FS & SLB. I've been thinking about the 1st & 2nd pick lately and the more I think about it the more I believe we won't pick DE in the first no matter who falls. Before you scream blasphemy, hear me out...

All the DEs with 1st round grade are all built for RDE or 3-4 OLB. Our true need is an LDE (bigger stronger bull rusher vs speed end) as it would be foolish to move Mario to LDE where he would be less effective. If we were to draft a speed end to play LDE, it would have to be as a situational pass rusher because a speed end at LDE would get eaten up in run defense. I think it is far more likely that we snag a better LDE fit (Paul Kruger, Tyson Jackson, Robert Ayers) in the 2nd/3rd round or a pass rushing specialist (Phillip Hunt, Stryker Sulak, Lawrence Sidbury, Nick Reed) in later rounds.

That being said, I think our 1st round pick ends up being a SLB. My logic is that there are no SS/FS that are worthy of 15 and if Dunta is resigned there is no need for CB this high. Although this a reasonably deep draft for LB, I think it may be the highest value when we draft.

Personally I am ok with a LB. Adibi & Diles have shown flashes but both have had injury issues and our depth at LB is not good enough to pick up the slack if they show to be just a flash in the pan. I would ideally prefer that they trade down in the 20s since Curry will likely be gone. Based on things I'm reading I am really starting to like Clay Matthews. He has the right size/build, has a great pedigree (both father & uncle were 19yr NFL vets) and he plays with tons of heart.

I'm not going to speculate on any trade down scenarios but if we could somehow pull a draft like the following to go with a couple FA signings I would be rather happy:

1 - Clay Matthews SLB
2 - Patrick Chung SS/FS
3 - Andy Levitre OG, Eric Wood C
4 - Robert Ayers DE, Derrick Walker DE, Phillip Hunt DE
5 - Andre Brown RB, Gartrell Johnson RB
6 - BPA
7 - BPA

the reasoning behind this is pretty good. my only point is that the new more aggressive scheme calls for faster, quicker D-linemen. kinda like what Indy has with freeney and mathis who is 145lbs. even if he was situational, if he produces 10+ sacks a year i could care less if Weaver kept playing runing downs. Also if we did trade down, i think it would be to draft Luis Delmas not clay matthew who benifited from playing next to Maualuga and cushing.

[chjoak]

I would actaully be ok with Delmas as long as we traded down. There are a few LBs (Marcus Freeman, Tyrone McKenzie, Zack Follett) I like in later rounds as well. There is also the possibility that Matthews slips to the 2nd. I mentioned him in the 1st because there has been a great deal of talk about his stock soaring.

The main reasoning in my OP is that I don't want to use a 1st rd pick on a situational player. I want the 1st to be a starter and I don't see any of the 1st rd DEs being starters at LDE.

[Heresy]

that's a well-reasoned analysis. I think John McClain was saying something similar, and it makes sense.

Sometimes the bpa isn't the bpa for your team, and the Texans aren't so deep on defense that they can waste a first rounder on a situational pick, when they have starters they need to be replacing.

[steelbtexan]

I like Matthews alot

No I didn't pass out

[lilbush]

Ayers will be gone probably in the second and at the latest the early 3rd.

[foozball]

ayers should be a 2nd rounder. he burst out of nowhere really. good production, but never really put up sack numbers until the senior bowl. if he measures out well at the combine, he might sneak into the 1st, which i think is a bit ridiculous. however, he and kruger are the best fits for us at LDE imo. at this point, i see trading down as our most likely option than drafting any player at 15. delmas and ayers, or delmas and kruger would be a great draft

[TheLBCoach]

I look at the 4th Round selection of Hunt and just feel uncomfortable. Sure, he had a heck of a season with the Cougars..but I just don't think he'll pan out in the pros. Just a personal opinion. Feel free to disagree if you would like to.

I have been giving this a lot of thought and think, like some others, that OLB and S in Rounds 1 and 2 makes the most sense on Day 1. I like the idea of addressing DE in Free Agency, unless somehow Kruger and/or Ayers slip to the 3rd Round.

As far as Safety is concerned, I'd want Delmas instead of Chung. Both are extremely hard hitters, but Delmas seems to be better in coverage.

[canadtexan]

I would like to preface this by says that a number of things could change during the combine. This is just a few things I have been thinking about lately based on current information.


I believe it is a general consensus that the Texans biggest needs are on D with those primary needs being LDE, SS/FS & SLB. I've been thinking about the 1st & 2nd pick lately and the more I think about it the more I believe we won't pick DE in the first no matter who falls. Before you scream blasphemy, hear me out...

All the DEs with 1st round grade are all built for RDE or 3-4 OLB. Our true need is an LDE (bigger stronger bull rusher vs speed end) as it would be foolish to move Mario to LDE where he would be less effective. If we were to draft a speed end to play LDE, it would have to be as a situational pass rusher because a speed end at LDE would get eaten up in run defense. I think it is far more likely that we snag a better LDE fit (Paul Kruger, Tyson Jackson, Robert Ayers) in the 2nd/3rd round or a pass rushing specialist (Phillip Hunt, Stryker Sulak, Lawrence Sidbury, Nick Reed) in later rounds.

That being said, I think our 1st round pick ends up being a SLB. My logic is that there are no SS/FS that are worthy of 15 and if Dunta is resigned there is no need for CB this high. Although this a reasonably deep draft for LB, I think it may be the highest value when we draft.

Personally I am ok with a LB. Adibi & Diles have shown flashes but both have had injury issues and our depth at LB is not good enough to pick up the slack if they show to be just a flash in the pan. I would ideally prefer that they trade down in the 20s since Curry will likely be gone. Based on things I'm reading I am really starting to like Clay Matthews. He has the right size/build, has a great pedigree (both father & uncle were 19yr NFL vets) and he plays with tons of heart.

I'm not going to speculate on any trade down scenarios but if we could somehow pull a draft like the following to go with a couple FA signings I would be rather happy:

1 - Clay Matthews SLB
2 - Patrick Chung SS/FS
3 - Andy Levitre OG, Eric Wood C
4 - Robert Ayers DE, Derrick Walker DE, Phillip Hunt DE
5 - Andre Brown RB, Gartrell Johnson RB
6 - BPA
7 - BPA

I 'm guessing 1-5 ,SLB ,DE ,FS,RB,OG/C, a trade down for an extra third would be the best case scenario as that would bump our running back pick into the third if need be. This doesn't take into cosideration any mid level free agent.

[outofhnd]

Im hoping a safety prospect shoots up the draft board and represents value at the #15 pick that or Malcolm Jenkins disappoints with his hip turn and falls to us at 15 to be a our free safety.

I think our starting SS this year may be dominique Barber which if he display coverage skills he might actually picjk up value and free up for another position of need.

If he doesn't im curious of where Kyle Mccarthy at ND shows at the combine for SS the dude can flat out tackle. but I really really want a centerfield free safety and hope Delmas shines and moves up to a top 15 pick.