Whiskeyrbl
04-30-2009, 09:54 PM
Ok I am not trying to start a rumor here. My sister called me and sent me this e-mail a little while ago. I just wanted to pass this along so y'all can use the info. I have no idea who the doctor is, he is supposedly a friend of my sisters co-workers husband.
This was sent from one of our co-workers. This Dr. is his really good friend.
April 29, 2009
After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community
leaders and school officials in Comal County, Heather suggested I send an
update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and
Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in the media.
Some of you or maybe all of you know this, but I will just list what facts I
know.
- The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset
- Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9
days) (this is unusual)
- Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd immunity," so the
"attack rate" is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down
with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will
become infected, though not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher than
seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The "clinical attack rate" may be
around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a
huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.
- The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico, and
there are folks on ventilators here in the US, right now. This has not been
in the media, but a 23 month old near here is fighting for his life, and a
pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In
Mexico, these folks might have died already, but here in the US, folks are
getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators.
What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will
likely become overwhelmed.
- Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County had more than 70
contacts before diagnosis.
- There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual),
than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting
this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a
given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that
there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.
- During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO,
Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so
far. We are in uncharted territory.
- I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the next
72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be surprised.
When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days.
- I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as
likely to lead to infection. It is contained areas and close contact that
are the biggest risk.
- Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to
be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely number of
infections when this is full-blown. I don't think there is a big supply of
Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take
Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.
- You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are
symptomatic. ER's south of here are becoming overwhelmed -- and I mean that
-- already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.
- It appears that this flu produces a distinctive "hoarseness" in many
victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu's; namely, sore throat,
body aches, headache, cough, and fever. Some have all these symptoms, while
others may have only one or two.
- N-Acetyl-Cysteine -- a nutritional supplement available at the health food
store or Wimberley Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen the
severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice a day for adults, and 600mg
twice a day in kids over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12 to take
it, but you could try opening the capsules and putting it on yogurt. For 40
pounds and up, 300-600 mg twice a day, for less than 40 pounds, half that.
- Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been vindicated as quite
effective in a large clinical trial in Europe, with an H1N1 variant. You can
buy this at Hill Country Natural Foods, or the Wimberley Pharmacy
This was sent from one of our co-workers. This Dr. is his really good friend.
April 29, 2009
After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community
leaders and school officials in Comal County, Heather suggested I send an
update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and
Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in the media.
Some of you or maybe all of you know this, but I will just list what facts I
know.
- The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset
- Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9
days) (this is unusual)
- Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd immunity," so the
"attack rate" is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down
with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will
become infected, though not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher than
seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The "clinical attack rate" may be
around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a
huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.
- The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico, and
there are folks on ventilators here in the US, right now. This has not been
in the media, but a 23 month old near here is fighting for his life, and a
pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In
Mexico, these folks might have died already, but here in the US, folks are
getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators.
What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will
likely become overwhelmed.
- Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County had more than 70
contacts before diagnosis.
- There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual),
than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting
this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a
given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that
there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.
- During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO,
Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so
far. We are in uncharted territory.
- I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the next
72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be surprised.
When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days.
- I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as
likely to lead to infection. It is contained areas and close contact that
are the biggest risk.
- Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to
be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely number of
infections when this is full-blown. I don't think there is a big supply of
Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take
Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.
- You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are
symptomatic. ER's south of here are becoming overwhelmed -- and I mean that
-- already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.
- It appears that this flu produces a distinctive "hoarseness" in many
victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu's; namely, sore throat,
body aches, headache, cough, and fever. Some have all these symptoms, while
others may have only one or two.
- N-Acetyl-Cysteine -- a nutritional supplement available at the health food
store or Wimberley Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen the
severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice a day for adults, and 600mg
twice a day in kids over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12 to take
it, but you could try opening the capsules and putting it on yogurt. For 40
pounds and up, 300-600 mg twice a day, for less than 40 pounds, half that.
- Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been vindicated as quite
effective in a large clinical trial in Europe, with an H1N1 variant. You can
buy this at Hill Country Natural Foods, or the Wimberley Pharmacy