SR 610 Interview of Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders

[RockNRoll!]

If you heard that interview with Matt and Adam today on 610 and you called, emailed, or texted the show because of his prediction of the Texans to have a losing season and be the only team in the AFC South with a losing record, post your email, calls, or texts here.

I sent a few texts along the lines of:

"Standard Deviations? Computer Simulations? Because those work! Signed, the BCS...this guy is an *****. He ought to be working for EA Sports"

"Computer geeks should stick to what they do best and not discuss football. Nobody cares about his gut instinct or his computer models and standard deviations or any other of that garbage. The BCS thinks his system sucks. Go Texans!"

There were probably a lot of good texts and emails that were not read....but that guy pissed off a lot of people in this city and for good reason. The dude comes off as a guy that guesses, tries to go with his gut feeling, and believes his simulations tell the story of how a season will unfold. What a nerd. Thoughts?

[South Texan]

OK, wait... let's not trash geeks. Having worked on or with computers for over 30 years I think I could be called a geek, and yet I can tell you at least part of what this guy is missing. Intangibles. Desire, commitment, self-confidence, confidence in teammates, just to name a few. In other words... the human element.

Consider momentum aka "The Big Play". An interception for a touchdown. Stopping Adrian Peterson on a 3'rd and less than a yard. Mario grabbing a fumble and running it in for a touchdown. How anyone could expect to program the effects of that into a simulation is way beyond me. And yet, we know it's real. How many times have you heard an announcer say something to the effect of "It appears the momentum has swung the other way."?

How about home field advantage. Towards the end of the season playoff bound teams are busting their tails to get it. So why would a team want it? I would suggest that a big part of the reason is the players are feeding off the emotion of 10's of thousands of fans screaming encouragement. Again, how do you turn that into cold hard numbers?

I really think anyone that thinks he can just look at numbers and know how a team will do should step away from that keyboard for a while and interface with some real, live, emotional people.

[protoTexans]

If you heard that interview with Matt and Adam today on 610 and you called, emailed, or texted the show because of his prediction of the Texans to have a losing season and be the only team in the AFC South with a losing record, post your email, calls, or texts here.

I sent a few texts along the lines of:

"Standard Deviations? Computer Simulations? Because those work! Signed, the BCS...this guy is an *****. He ought to be working for EA Sports"

"Computer geeks should stick to what they do best and not discuss football. Nobody cares about his gut instinct or his computer models and standard deviations or any other of that garbage. The BCS thinks his system sucks. Go Texans!"

There were probably a lot of good texts and emails that were not read....but that guy pissed off a lot of people in this city and for good reason. The dude comes off as a guy that guesses, tries to go with his gut feeling, and believes his simulations tell the story of how a season will unfold. What a nerd. Thoughts?


Hey now, on Madden 08, I went 13-3 & won the Super Bowl... Of course I had alot of my own plays drawn up & did not use Kubes playbook... lol.. Sorry Kubes..... & BTW... I did not start any games over... lol...

My Gut feeling for the Texans is a winning record & deep into the playoffs...

[Se7en]

I used a computer predict our season last year and it used a database of all players and teams built by some of the industry's "experts" in the field of statistical analysis. You can view that post from last year by following this link...

http://boards.houstontexans.com/showthread.php?t=7747

You might notice that I ran a full season of Madden with the rosters for that year which in theory should have been a very good representation of where that team should have matched up with other teams in the league.

We went 10-6 in my Madden simulation and nearly everyone on this board seemed to hate the fact that I posted it... even though it was supposed to be fun.

I learned one thing... computers cannot predict worth a darn! They do have a sense of humor though because last season VY was predicted to throw more INTs than TDs. That is the real reason why VY was benched all season! Jeff Fisher saw my PS3 Madden prediction and it freaked him out! :)

[dbruder44]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/powerRankings

Just thought I would add another program pick. Click on the link and you will see the human power rankings Texans are 18th, then look at the computer one we are 11th, and the third tab is what our chances are of winning week 1 so me 60+ percent. Some computers are smart

[Vinny]

If you heard that interview with Matt and Adam today on 610 and you called, emailed, or texted the show because of his prediction of the Texans to have a losing season and be the only team in the AFC South with a losing record, post your email, calls, or texts here.

I sent a few texts along the lines of:

"Standard Deviations? Computer Simulations? Because those work! Signed, the BCS...this guy is an *****. He ought to be working for EA Sports"

"Computer geeks should stick to what they do best and not discuss football. Nobody cares about his gut instinct or his computer models and standard deviations or any other of that garbage. The BCS thinks his system sucks. Go Texans!"

There were probably a lot of good texts and emails that were not read....but that guy pissed off a lot of people in this city and for good reason. The dude comes off as a guy that guesses, tries to go with his gut feeling, and believes his simulations tell the story of how a season will unfold. What a nerd. Thoughts?
its a game. Someone wins and someone loses. You can't go to all 32 teams home and predict everyone is a winner...they do that in kindergarten. So, someone doesn't like our chances. So what? Big deal. "They" have all been right for nearly a decade (media predicting a losing record) and it is up to this franchise to finally prove them wrong. Should I remind you that this franchise has never, ever had a winning record in nearly a decade? Is it such a shock that someone not from here doesn't like our chances?

[Dr. Z]

its a game. Someone wins and someone loses. You can't go to all 32 teams home and predict everyone is a winner...they do that in kindergarten. So, someone doesn't like our chances. So what? Big deal. "They" have all been right for nearly a decade (media predicting a losing record) and it is up to this franchise to finally prove them wrong. Should I remind you that this franchise has never, ever had a winning record in nearly a decade? Is it such a shock that someone not from here doesn't like our chances?

Very true. Mario had his turn making the media look stupid. now its whole organizations turn to shut people up. Here's to 09 baby!

[Texian]

There you go rush out there and bash FO because they say something you don't agree with. Even though you failed to do the research to see that FO is right a lot more than they are wrong. Atta Boy!

[RockNRoll!]

its a game. Someone wins and someone loses. You can't go to all 32 teams home and predict everyone is a winner...they do that in kindergarten. So, someone doesn't like our chances. So what? Big deal. "They" have all been right for nearly a decade (media predicting a losing record) and it is up to this franchise to finally prove them wrong. Should I remind you that this franchise has never, ever had a winning record in nearly a decade? Is it such a shock that someone not from here doesn't like our chances?

I understand the point that we have never had a winning record so there will be a level of disrespect among guys who don't focus on the Texans exclusively, but there is absolutely no reason to believe that with the guys that we have added to the roster plus the new coaches and coaching philosophies that we should be 8-8 or worse (barring injuries)....in my mind, the only way this team finishes 8-8 or worse, it will be due to injuries.