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  • Thanks Baller. I had heard a very much abbreviated version of that before. I believe Nate Peterman was the qb in question. The guy basically said "pretty much every qb gets stronger in the NFL and improves their arm." He mentioned Brady specifically. Keep in mind.. These guys are old kids and young adults. I didnt finish growing until I was 24. They are still a year or two away from being full grown men. Most of them still have a year or two left to grow and develop. Not to mention the benefits of health, nutrition, and strength training at the NFL level. I dont see too many guys lose weight after coming into the nfl unless they had a lot of extra to begin with. Most of them put on another 5 to 10 lbs at least.
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    • Originally posted by ArkhamKnight92 View Post
      Thanks Baller. I had heard a very much abbreviated version of that before. I believe Nate Peterman was the qb in question. The guy basically said "pretty much every qb gets stronger in the NFL and improves their arm." He mentioned Brady specifically. Keep in mind.. These guys are old kids and young adults. I didnt finish growing until I was 24. They are still a year or two away from being full grown men. Most of them still have a year or two left to grow and develop. Not to mention the benefits of health, nutrition, and strength training at the NFL level. I dont see too many guys lose weight after coming into the nfl unless they had a lot of extra to begin with. Most of them put on another 5 to 10 lbs at least.

      Agreed. I stop growing around that time as well. People take certain things like this and run with it like its golden. I will post what was said about Matt Ryan here in a few.
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      • The Negative about Matt Ryan who went 3rd in the first round. He had 19 interceptions his senior year.

        Negatives: Lacks the arm strength to challenge the deep secondary, as his long throws tend to flutter or hang up long enough for defenders to attack the ball in flight (see 2006 Brigham Young and Wake Forest contests and 2007 Massachusetts and Virginia Tech games)...Needs to do a better job of planting his feet to get more zip behind his long throws...Has inconsistent and adequate velocity when firing the ball deep...Weakest area of his game is exposed when he attempts to fire the deep ball, as the pass tends to lack accuracy...Runs too hot and cold when trying to air the ball out, as his long throws lack trajectory...Needs to improve timing on his deep throws, as he is very inconsistent hitting those targets coming out of cuts...Holds for PATs and field goals, but needs to be quicker fielding and placing the ball...Strong runner with the ball, but runs a bit erect, resulting in fumble issues, as he does not always protect the ball when breaking past the line of scrimmage...Does not have the foot quickness to keep defenses honest as a runner and while he shows good vision as a passer, he will run into a crowd when carrying the pigskin (needs to be more alert to cutback lanes)...When he generates a high push in his delivery or throws off his back foot, his passes lose some zip, resulting in a high amount of tosses getting deflected (see 2007 North Carolina State, Massachusetts, Virginia Tech and Florida State games)...When he holds on to the ball too long waiting for his receivers to break, he will leave his passes behind too often (see 2007 Wake Forest, Virginia Tech SEC Game, Florida State and Maryland contests)...Needs to make quicker decisions when he is flushed out of the pocket and must stop trying to force his throws into tight areas...Needs to protect the ball better; had fumble issues in 2007, especially after getting sacked (see 2007 Georgia Tech, Miami and Michigan State games).
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        • Originally posted by shishkabob View Post
          ...knowing Watson is hitting 53 mph makes me feel better then when we were told he was only hitting 49 mph.

          I wonder if he was throwing soft at the combine to adjust to the receivers. he easily had the best day throwing the ball out there.
          Many of the QBs were very awkward with their feet and aiming at the Combine. But comparisons across different guns aren't valid.

          Watson has a quicker release, that should help. But the threshold remains valid for those who were tested from 2008 forward.

          Originally posted by SteelBluCurtain View Post

          Still seems a little blown out of proportion.. When you've built your game around comfortably throwing at 53.5 mph, you naturally compensate for that 3 ft over 20 yards..
          You can't overcome DB reaction time, or time & distance. If you watch a lot of NFL game tape every week you know how often a DBs reach is just inches away from a completed ball. As Ben says, 3 feet is huge when the ball is arriving. Everybody is a good athlete in the NFL, and it is indeed a game of inches.

          Drew Brees overcomes his less than powerful arm with extreme accuracy and being the best anticipation passer in the game.


          So when is it a difference maker? Not where most people might think...
          Perhaps the biggest knock on Watson is his velocity on throws. He had the weakest arm at the NFL Scouting Combine with a disappointing 49 MPH. The lack of zip was sometimes evident at Clemson, notably in red zone situations.
          Originally posted by Texanballer View Post
          http://www.profootballweekly.com/20....e-nfl/a93ef5p/The “velocity” stat has only been used for a few years and there is not nearly enough evidence to tell us a thing other than the miles per hour a quarterback's throw is traveling. Ten years from now there may be some evidence, but today there is nothing. In fact when I asked some GMs and coaches around the league that I know about the stat they all agreed it was meaningless at this time as far as predicting anything. Again, not enough data.

          ...While he may not have the quickest release, he can make all the throws and can easily throw the ball 55 yards downfield with a tight spiral.
          Greg's just wrong here, teams do consider speed gun readings and the velocity stat has been used since 2008.

          And Watson was reported to have the quickest release in the draft class -- it was compared to Aaron Rodgers, opposed to what Greg thought...
          According to Sports Science, Deshaun Watson has the fastest release (.35) in the class. Equivalent to Aaron Rodgers.

          — Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) April 15, 2017
          Greg's own Bears, who he was certain were drafting Watson up until hours before the draft, were never on Deshaun. He's a feisty old school retired scout, and if you talk to them most of those guys were never wrong -- their GMs or coaches were.
          In 2016 Brock Osweiler was rated last (32nd) among all QBs (>400 attempts) by ProFootballFocus and ranked 33rd/34 QBs (>200 attempts) by Football Outsiders.

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          • Originally posted by H2O4me View Post

            Many of the QBs were very awkward with their feet and aiming at the Combine. But comparisons across different guns aren't valid.

            Watson has a quicker release, that should help. But the threshold remains valid for those who were tested from 2008 forward.
            Are you saying you agree -- you think his ball velocity is a red flag that makes him a long shot to succeed in the NFL?

            Originally posted by H2O4me View Post

            lack of zip was sometimes evident at Clemson, notably in red zone situations.
            I didn't watch a whole lot of Clemson games, but it would seem... when you have a big phyiscal receiver like Mike Williams in the redzone, you'd feed him jump balls.

            Originally posted by H2O4me View Post

            Drew Brees overcomes his less than powerful arm with extreme accuracy and being the best anticipation passer in the game.
            Do you see other similarities between Brees and Watson?

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            • Originally posted by SteelBluCurtain View Post
              Are you saying you agree -- you think his ball velocity is a red flag that makes him a long shot to succeed in the NFL?
              Not for me to say. But there are analytics guys who say there hasn't been a franchise QB under 55 mph.

              Dak Prescott was 54 mph.

              Originally posted by SteelBluCurtain View Post
              I didn't watch a whole lot of Clemson games, but it would seem... when you have a big phyiscal receiver like Mike Williams in the redzone, you'd feed him jump balls.
              They say velocity matters more in red zone where the windows are tighter and close fastest.

              Originally posted by SteelBluCurtain View Post
              Do you see other similarities between Brees and Watson?
              Me? No. I'd compare his upside generally more to Alex Smith. Brees is HOF... tough comparison, and Watson isn't that small.
              In 2016 Brock Osweiler was rated last (32nd) among all QBs (>400 attempts) by ProFootballFocus and ranked 33rd/34 QBs (>200 attempts) by Football Outsiders.

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              • Originally posted by H2O4me View Post

                Not for me to say. But there are analytics guys who say there hasn't been a franchise QB under 55 mph.

                Dak Prescott was 54 mph.
                Right, but the problem is.. of that entire list (last 8 years) I only found 2 franchise QBs that they have metrics for.. the rest didn't throw and they don't have a metric.

                http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/03/16/...ine-2008-2015/

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                • But how would they know H2O4me? They didn't have this back when Brady and Manning came out. Both players will be inducted into the HOF. In 2008 Matt Ryan had a lot issues and look at his performances since being draft. Plus they wasn't doing this velocity test at that time either. So again what true data states a QB with velocity under 55 won't make it in the NFL?
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                  • Originally posted by SteelBluCurtain View Post

                    Right, but the problem is.. of that entire list (last 8 years) I only found 2 franchise QBs that they have metrics for.. the rest didn't throw and they don't have a metric.

                    http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/03/16/...ine-2008-2015/
                    They get average mph counting framerates on coaches tape. Now they can measure spin rate -- before they'd have to be next to a guy throwing and listen for it. They have numbers for everybody, just not published.

                    Look, he's on the edge of arm strength but he's got a quick release and decent mechanics from what I've seen except for some footwork stuff.

                    Questions will be 1) Is he an accurate passer?, 2) Can he read defenses/process quickly?, 3) Will injuries be a concern?, 4) Can he play from the pocket? and then less important 5) Is he a fit for our offense?

                    He passes much of the Bill Parcells test:
                    1. He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.
                    2. He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.
                    3. He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn’t ephemeral and that he has lived as “the guy” for some period of time.
                    4. He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.
                    And he's got impeccable character. Many have said "He's not a guy who'll get you fired if he doesn't make it" because of his intangibles.

                    So we'll wait and see what he becomes.
                    In 2016 Brock Osweiler was rated last (32nd) among all QBs (>400 attempts) by ProFootballFocus and ranked 33rd/34 QBs (>200 attempts) by Football Outsiders.

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                    • Originally posted by Texanballer View Post
                      But how would they know H2O4me? They didn't have this back when Brady and Manning came out. Both players will be inducted into the HOF. In 2008 Matt Ryan had a lot issues and look at his performances since being draft. Plus they wasn't doing this velocity test at that time either. So again what true data states a QB with velocity under 55 won't make it in the NFL?
                      They actually did have the velocity test in 2008, Matt Ryan just chose not to throw... I just went back and looked at the 2008 QB Classes velocity and one thing stood out to me...

                      Joe Flacco, even in college was known for his big arm... Threw a 55mph...

                      If 55 is the bench mark and our big armed QBs are barely making it, what's that say about the system? I'd take a guess that most of the QBs that rank above Flacco don't have as strong an arm as him.

                      Cody Kessler - someone they keep saying has good accuracy but not a strong enough arm to be a franchise guy threw the same speed as Flacco.

                      Colt McCoy threw 56 and was knocked as someone lacking arm strength.
                      Last edited by SteelBluCurtain; 1 week ago.

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                      • I think the main thing is accuracy, not velocity. I was going to say Brees never had a strong arm but that was just from watching. Now I see the number saying Brees velocity is poor makes me think even more that this velocity theory is all worthless when it comes to qb evaluation. It really doesn't matter what stat, measurement etc that is taken on qb prospects, The numbers is that no matter what measurement you want to look at...the bottom line is that 90% of all drafted qb's will fail miserably. It is more of an individual basis on how successful you will be. See Doug Flutie. Great qb, but he is too short to be a NFL quarterback. I think either you are able to block out the pressure and focus or you can't. And if you are not an accurate passer, it won't matter how Joe cool you are under pressure. So to me, sure success at the college level is important, but accuracy and the ability to stay focussed under pressure is the 2 factors that make the most potential with any qb prospect.
                        1 more thing: The desire to improve every day is more than just words spoken to the media. See Jerry Rice.
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                        • Originally posted by H2O4me View Post

                          They get average mph counting framerates on coaches tape. Now they can measure spin rate -- before they'd have to be next to a guy throwing and listen for it. They have numbers for everybody, just not published.
                          So let me ask you this on the guys like Brady or Manning, or even qbs that might not have thrown at the combine or threw before they started this in 08, so they do a frame rate test of their pro tape or college tape. Both Brady and Mannings arms I proved once they got in the league. Cleaning up footwork, and developing your core and lower body strength do wonders for your arm strength. Of Watson is coming in at 53-54 I don't see a reason why he couldn't add a few more mph to his throw.

                          Also wouldn't Watson hit every mark on Parcells list? he graduated, he started pretty much 3 years, and he won over 30 games. Only thing is he wasn't a traditional 4 year senior, but in college your status is determined by your credit hours. He was invited to the senior bowl after all.
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                          • Brady and Manning are both over 55. Thanks to NFL Network for doing shows that they pull out a radar gun. So, while they really had no exact science at the time they were drafted. Modern technology has been used to show what they have since.

                            The question is what is Brady throwing now? Because we run the same system for the most part as NE. If he is throwing 54-56 (example) ok. If he is throwing 50 (example) then you can operate the system if you have the gifts a guy like Brady has. I'm willing to bet Brady has altered his release speed multiple times since he was drafted. Case and point being that in his 1st 2-3 seasons he was better hitting open targets over guys who where covered well. Then again Brady has one of the most accurate passes around. Look at his TD/INT ratio...crazy.

                            Plus, this;

                            I was reading 'J.J. Watt believes in Tom Savage as Texans' starter' on FanSided for iOS and I thought you might be interested in reading it too.
                            http://torotimes.com/2017/05/09/j-j-...exans-starter/
                            JJ Watt & Co ready to destroy

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                            • Originally posted by Matt_in_KW View Post
                              I was reading 'J.J. Watt believes in Tom Savage as Texans' starter' on FanSided for iOS and I thought you might be interested in reading it too.
                              http://torotimes.com/2017/05/09/j-j-...exans-starter/
                              you literally just posted this in another topic stop spamming crap.
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                              • Originally posted by SteelBluCurtain View Post

                                They actually did have the velocity test in 2008, Matt Ryan just chose not to throw... I just went back and looked at the 2008 QB Classes velocity and one thing stood out to me...

                                Joe Flacco, even in college was known for his big arm... Threw a 55mph...

                                If 55 is the bench mark and our big armed QBs are barely making it, what's that say about the system? I'd take a guess that most of the QBs that rank above Flacco don't have as strong an arm as him.

                                Cody Kessler - someone they keep saying has good accuracy but not a strong enough arm to be a franchise guy threw the same speed as Flacco.

                                Colt McCoy threw 56 and was knocked as someone lacking arm strength.
                                Yeah i went back and looked it up after i posted this. But it wasn't a major theme like it is now.

                                But like you said every Quarterback comes into the NFL with weaknesses.

                                Mallet was a rocket launcher.

                                Cutler also had a big arm.

                                Both of them have big time accuracy issues, especially Mallett.
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