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NFL Power Rankings 2017

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  • #16
    NFL Power Rankings post-NFL Draft edition

    Pete Prisco/CBS Sports
    How does your team stack up after the 2017 NFL Draft?
    .
    Rank Team Change Record
    1 Patriots They've actually improved in the offseason, which is downright scary for the rest of the league. As long as Tom Brady is upright, they are the clear favorites again. -- 14-2-0
    2 Falcons We know the offense is going to be explosive again, but they've added some nice pieces to the defense. They will be even faster on that side of the ball. -- 11-5-0
    3 Packers They added some much-needed help on defense in the draft at positions of need. If that side of the ball takes a big step forward, they will be back in the Super Bowl. -- 10-6-0
    4 Seahawks They got help on the offensive line in the draft, which was a must. The time is now for this group, especially with the way they drafted in the secondary. 2 10-5-1
    5 Giants Their time to push for a title with Eli Manning is shrinking, which is why taking his replacement in the third round in Davis Webb was an odd move. I do think giving him the added weapons they have will help. 2 11-5-0
    6 Steelers Getting pass rusher T.J. Watt in the first round will help a defense that needs more from the edge. With Ben Roethlisberger back -- was he really going anywhere? -- they will again be in the Super mix. 2 11-5-0
    7 Raiders Getting Derek Carr back healthy is the most important thing about their offseason. If he's back, they should win the AFC West. 2 12-4-0
    8 Buccaneers They've had a heck of an offseason, and with Jameis Winston entering his third season they are poised to push for the division title. 3 9-7-0
    9 Cowboys They had a nice draft on the defensive side, but they need those guys to make an impact right away. I just think they are taking a step back this time around. 1 13-3-0
    10 Cardinals They were top-10 in offense and defense last year, which tells you they had talent. They've added some nice players as well, but this will be about Carson Palmer staying on the field and playing well. 2 7-8-1
    11 Chiefs Wonder how Alex Smith will play this season knowing they traded up in the first round to get his replacement in Patrick Mahomes? Was that the right move? 2 12-4-0
    12 Dolphins They are doing a nice job building this roster, having a nice draft to go with their free-agency moves. They are clearly the second-best team in the AFC East. 1 10-6-0
    13 Saints They've had one of the best offseasons of any team in the league. They are ready to make a push again for a division title -- and more -- with Drew Brees getting help around him. 11 7-9-0
    14 Broncos Who plays quarterback? That's the main question, and whether it's Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch, the second question is this: Are they good enough to push for a division title? 4 9-7-0
    15 Bengals They had a really good draft, adding a lot of talented players, some with risk, but they could pay off big. If that happens, they could be a playoff team again. 2 6-9-1
    16 Titans They clearly drafted with an eye on getting quarterback Marcus Mariota more weapons. Now comes the biggest question for Mike Mularkey: Will he be allowed to use them? 2 9-7-0
    17 Panthers Here's another team that drafted with the idea of helping their quarterback, Cam Newton. They got two versatile runner-pass catchers in the first two rounds. I still worry about their pass rush with so much age. 3 6-10-0
    18 Redskins Without a general manager, they've done a nice job in both free agency and the draft. It wouldn't shock me to see them much higher up this list come October. The Kirk Cousins situation bears long-term watching. 1 8-7-1
    19 Chargers They drafted with the idea of making one last fling with Philip Rivers before he retires, which was the right thing to do. The offensive line will be much improved and adding a big target in Mike Williams will help. 4 5-11-0
    20 Ravens Have they done enough to get back into the playoffs? I'm not sure they have, but they did add some good players in the draft. 5 8-8-0
    21 Texans They say Tom Savage will be the starting quarterback, but do you really trade up to get Deshaun Watson in the first round if that's the case? I don't think so. 5 9-7-0
    22 Colts It's all about improvement on defense with this team, and adding free safety Malik Hooker in the first round and corner Quincy Wilson in the second were nice picks. But they have to get a lot better on that side of the ball. 1 8-8-0
    23 Vikings They've improved their offensive line and this offseason and added a feature back in Dalvin Cook. But they aren't close to being as good as the Packers. 1 8-8-0
    24 Lions We saw them fold late last season, and they did little to improve a pass rush that needs it in a division with Aaron Rodgers. They fall back down this season. 10 9-7-0
    25 Eagles They will be improved from a year ago with the growth of Carson Wentz, but I think it's one more year before they push for the division title. -- 7-9-0
    26 Bills New coach Sean McDermott is clearly running things with general manager Doug Whaley out. They had a solid draft, but they are the third team in the division. -- 7-9-0
    27 Jaguars They have a running game now with Leonard Fournette and the defense should be good. So, as usual, it's all on quarterback Blake Bortles. -- 3-13-0
    28 Rams Their entire season is about the growth of Jared Goff, and they drafted with that in mind. But it will take some time for new coach Sean McVay to get the offense going. -- 4-12-0
    29 Browns I think they had a nice draft, adding a lot of talent, but it's all about second-round passer DeShone Kizer. If he's good, they might win six games. 3 1-15-0
    30 Bears Why pay Mike Glennon if you are going to go big at quarterback in the draft, trading up to take Mitchell Trubisky? Coach John Fox couldn't be happy about that. 1 3-13-0
    31 49ers John Lynch is off to a fast start as general manager, but this team has a long way to go. There will be a lot of growing pains. 1 2-14-0
    32 Jets They made some interesting picks in the draft, but it's all about quarterback. And that's a problem with this team, which is why they are down here at the bottom. 1 5-11-0
    If you're not following the Astros, you are doing Houston sports wrong.

    Comment


    • #17
      Post-draft Power Rankings: Top 3 remain the same; Steelers move up


      May 8, 2017
      ESPN.com
      Dan Graziano breaks down the latest release of the ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings, which were voted on by a group of ESPN's NFL experts.
      Power Rankings? In May? Are we nuts?

      Maybe, but what else do you want for NFL coverage in May? Game recaps?

      The NFL draft is over, and teams are heading into the meat of their offseason programs. This feels like as good an opportunity as any to assess where they all rank in relation to each other. And be honest. You know you can't look away.

      Check out our post-free agency Power Rankings here, and our post-Super Bowl Power Rankings here.

      1. New England Patriots

      2016 record: 14-2
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 1

      Unchanged at the top, where the champions of January and February also emerged as the champions of March and April. No months off! No months off! New England's aggressive trade and free-agency approach was that of a team determined to win as many Tom Brady titles as it can while it can.

      2. Atlanta Falcons

      2016 record: 11-5
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 2

      No truth to the rumor that the Falcons had a 25-spot lead with a day and a half to go and coughed it up. Too soon? Well, so was the Falcons' slow-down game plan in the second half of the Super Bowl. In all honesty, they should be fine, unless Kyle Shanahan's playcalling was the key to the whole thing.

      3. Green Bay Packers

      2016 record: 10-6
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 3

      They handed Aaron Rodgers a Martellus Bennett signing in March before spending their first four draft picks on the defense. Rodgers seems like a big-picture guy, so he probably understands that helping the defense helps him indirectly. And if he complains, Ted Thompson will just say, "Martellus Bennett though."

      4. Pittsburgh Steelers

      2016 record: 11-5
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 5

      The Steelers' biggest offseason addition might be a guy they already had. If Martavis Bryant can stay off suspension, the offense gets even more dynamic and next offseason's Ben Roethlisberger retirement hints become a little bit easier to handle.

      5. Dallas Cowboys

      2016 record: 13-3
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 4

      The Cowboys went 8-8 three years in a row from 2011 to 2013. Their win totals the past three years are 12, 4 and 13. That pattern doesn't bode well, but that offensive line travels, so I guess that keeps the Cowboys here. Nobody seems to care that no one in their secondary is finished with finals yet.

      6. Seattle Seahawks

      2016 record: 10-5-1
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 6

      Earl Thomas didn't retire. Richard Sherman didn't get traded. Russell Wilson has probably healed from all the injuries he suffered last season behind John Schneider's revolutionary four-man offensive line. So all that is good news. The bad is that the Seahawks didn't do much about the line. Again.

      7. Oakland Raiders

      2016 record: 12-4
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 7

      Jared Cook and Marshawn Lynch add some attitude to the offense. Derek Carr looks to build on his breakout season. The Raiders went 12-4 but washed out early in the playoffs because of Carr's ill-timed broken leg. So they're all-in for a title before they head off to Las Vegas in a couple of years.

      8. Kansas City Chiefs

      2016 record: 12-4
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 8

      How many times do you have to beat a team in a season before you can rank ahead of them in the following May's Power Rankings? Apparently, the answer is more than two. The Chiefs are so good that they traded this year's and next year's first-round picks for a quarterback who isn't going to play this coming season.

      9. New York Giants

      2016 record: 11-5
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 9

      The Giants brought back almost the exact same defense that dominated for them last season, which is good. They added Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram to the passing game, which is good. They didn't do much at running back or offensive line, which is potentially disastrous. But at least they know how to beat the Cowboys.

      10. Denver Broncos

      2016 record: 9-7
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 10

      How good a job is coach Vance Joseph walking into? The next-highest-ranked team that changed coaches this offseason is ranked 25th. If Garett Bolles can start right away at left tackle, that's good news for Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Trevon Synch, Paxtor Lymian ... whoever their quarterback ends up being.

      11. Houston Texans

      2016 record: 9-7
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 13

      Two of the quarterbacks the Texans considered -- Tony Romo and Jay Cutler -- took broadcasting jobs instead. They ended up with Deshaun Watson, and given Bill O'Brien's quarterback-shuffling proclivities, Watson is sure to start six or eight games this year -- just maybe not in a row.

      12. Tennessee Titans

      2016 record: 9-7
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 14

      Two AFC South teams in the top 12? Feels like a stretch, but the Titans sure did load up with new faces (Logan Ryan, Adoree' Jackson) in the secondary and a first-round wide receiver (Corey Davis) for quarterback Marcus Mariota. They were last season's surprise, which sometimes means you have to take a step back before moving forward again. But it's not as if they're in the AFC West.

      13. Miami Dolphins

      2016 record: 10-6
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 15

      Last season was big for the Dolphins, as first-year coach Adam Gase seemed to figure out how to minimize Ryan Tannehill's weaknesses. They added some important pieces at linebacker to solidify the defense. But it all comes down to the offensive line, and there has been some shuffling there. We'll see how it all comes together.

      14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

      2016 record: 9-7
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 17

      It was as if the Bucs and the Titans were having a contest to see who could gather more weapons for their third-year star quarterback. Jameis Winston picked up DeSean Jackson in free agency and O.J. Howard in the draft's first round. Not bad. What Mariota still has over Winston is someone to take his handoffs.

      15. Detroit Lions

      2016 record: 9-7
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 12

      The Lions trailed in the fourth quarter in eight of their nine wins last season. They went 9-7 and could easily have been 1-15. That's astounding, and it makes them impossible to predict in 2017. But they seem to have improved the defensive line, and first-rounder Jarrad Davis is a nice fit at linebacker. Put together a pass rush and you've got something here.

      16. Baltimore Ravens

      2016 record: 8-8
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 11

      Baltimore is another team that used its first four picks on defense. Which is fine, when you have to play the Steelers twice a season. But man, are they seeing something in this wide receiver corps that the rest of us aren't? Like, for instance, wide receivers?

      17. Carolina Panthers

      2016 record: 6-10
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 18

      With all due respect to Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel and anybody else the Panthers added, the most important people in this Carolina offseason are the surgeons who worked on Cam Newton's shoulder last month. When and how effectively Cam can return is the only story here.

      18. Arizona Cardinals

      2016 record: 7-8-1
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 16

      We did this a year ago. The Cardinals were No. 5, and I ranted about how crazy it was that they weren't higher. I was ... wrong. So while I like what they did on defense with their first couple of picks, prove to me that quarterback Carson Palmer has something left before I buy in again, please.

      19. Indianapolis Colts

      2016 record: 8-8
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 22

      The Colts appear to have upgraded at general manager, and new guy Chris Ballard justifiably went defense heavy in the draft. Keeping Andrew Luck off the field a little bit more isn't a bad way to try to keep Andrew Luck safe.

      20. Washington Redskins

      2016 record: 8-7-1
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 20

      They went in a bit of a different direction at general manager, replacing Scot McCloughan with ... no one at all. Hard to call that an upgrade, but you do you, Dan Snyder. Jonathan Allen and Ryan Anderson look like a sweet couple of high draft picks, but the loss of DeSean Jackson is going to hurt this offense.

      21. Minnesota Vikings

      2016 record: 8-8
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 19

      The Vikings think they upgraded at offensive tackle, and I guess you could make the argument that they could have signed two recliners and not been any worse off there than they were last season. But Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers are in the prove-it zone, and the success of Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook is tied to theirs.

      22. Philadelphia Eagles

      2016 record: 7-9
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 21

      Howie Roseman is still playing the long game with very young draft picks and one guy (Sidney Jones) who might not help until 2018. But the Eagles feel like they hit on Carson Wentz, and they got him Alshon Jeffery to help his second year along. So, there's nothing wrong with the long game. Fans just have to be patient. Is that a problem?

      23. Cincinnati Bengals

      2016 record: 6-9-1
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 23

      Really? Way down here at No. 23? I mean, I guess the offensive line is an issue minus Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth. But it's easy to forget that this team made the playoffs five years in a row before last season's crater, and the crater could well turn out to be an aberration.

      24. New Orleans Saints

      2016 record: 7-9
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 24

      No team treads water like the Saints. Did you know they've been 7-9 three years in a row and four of the past five? They're something like a non-team at this point, stuck here in Power Rankings purgatory without Brandin Cooks, without Malcolm Butler, without a pass rush and somehow with the husk of Adrian Peterson. And you wonder why coach Sean Payton seems to want out every year.

      25. Los Angeles Chargers

      2016 record: 5-11
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 25

      Every other team in the AFC West is in the top 10. None of their quarterbacks is as good as this team's is. Philip Rivers needs help, and the Chargers got him some with Mike Williams and a couple of guards in the first three rounds of the draft. This team blew a lot of fourth-quarter leads last season; hold half of them and this ranking is way too low.

      26. Buffalo Bills

      2016 record: 7-9
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 26

      New head coach run! Sean McDermott has consolidated power in a very short time. And he came out of the first two rounds with a new cornerback, a new wide receiver and one of the draft's top guards. Buffalo likes both of its lines, and if quarterback Tyrod Taylor is reliable, the Bills could surprise. One of these years, they'll surprise. Right?

      27. Jacksonville Jaguars

      2016 record: 3-13
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 27

      The annual kings of free agency try once again for that elusive six-win season. Was A.J. Bouye a one-year wonder or a cornerstone signing? Is Leonard Fournette this year's Ezekiel Elliott? Is Cam Robinson ready? Lots of questions in Jacksonville, where the answers always seem elusive.

      28. Los Angeles Rams

      2016 record: 4-12
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 28

      The Rams added 31-year-old head coach Sean McVay and 69-year-old defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. They got a blindside protector for Jared Goff in Andrew Whitworth, and they drafted a couple of guys for him to throw it to. The big questions, however, still revolve around Goff and whether the new coaching staff can advance him beyond where the old one did.

      29. Chicago Bears

      2016 record: 3-13
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 29

      Sign the Buccaneers' backup quarterback and trade a cartload of picks to move up to No. 2 and draft a quarterback? The Bears look like they're trying to replicate last year's Eagles quarterback moves, except with worse players. If Mitchell Trubisky is a franchise QB, the price won't have mattered. In similar news, if I pick the correct six lottery numbers, this will be my final column.

      30. New York Jets

      2016 record: 5-11
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 30

      Jamal Adams should be a great player. He is not, however, a quarterback. The Jets are forever the Jets, the rare team that finds itself (A) rebuilding and (B) with its coach and general manager somehow on the hot seat at the same time. Maybe owner Woody Johnson will bring some nice Tower of London souvenirs back.

      31. San Francisco 49ers

      2016 record: 2-14
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 31

      Sure, the 49ers fleeced the Bears in the draft and came up with top-10 players at picks 2 and 31. But they still don't have a quarterback. What coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch do have is time. With a pair of six-year contracts in hand, they know their quarterback could still be in high school.

      32. Cleveland Browns

      2016 record: 1-15
      Post-free agency ranking: No. 32

      When you can triple your previous season's win total and still have a good shot at the No. 1 overall pick, you're in a ... good spot? Not sure, but the Browns got three fun players in the first round of the draft and somehow kept Jamie Collins from leaving in free agency. I say give Brock Osweiler a shot, but they probably won't.
      If you're not following the Astros, you are doing Houston sports wrong.

      Comment


      • #18
        I'm drawing a blank here: "The Colts appear to have upgraded at general manager, and new guy Chris Ballard justifiably went defense heavy in the draft. Keeping Andrew Luck off the field a little bit more isn't a bad way to try to keep Andrew Luck safe."

        What is the reasoning here? Wouldn't an improved O-line and running back be the best way to accomplish this.

        Can't get my head around the thought that shutting down the other team puts Luck on the field more often.

        What am I missing here?
        Religion, it's the process of worshipping the messenger and ignoring the message.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by cuppacoffee View Post
          I'm drawing a blank here: "The Colts appear to have upgraded at general manager, and new guy Chris Ballard justifiably went defense heavy in the draft. Keeping Andrew Luck off the field a little bit more isn't a bad way to try to keep Andrew Luck safe."

          What is the reasoning here? Wouldn't an improved O-line and running back be the best way to accomplish this.

          Can't get my head around the thought that shutting down the other team puts Luck on the field more often.

          What am I missing here?
          yea I don't think this writer understands how defense works
          sigpic

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by shishkabob View Post

            yea I don't think this writer understands how defense works
            I don't think he's saying their defense will be good enough to actually stop anyone, just that teams won't score as fast and he'll get a breather, lol.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by SteelBluCurtain View Post

              I don't think he's saying their defense will be good enough to actually stop anyone, just that teams won't score as fast and he'll get a breather, lol.

              Didn't look at it that way. Actually makes sense.now...kinda.
              Religion, it's the process of worshipping the messenger and ignoring the message.

              Comment


              • #22
                NFL Power Rankings, Pt. 1: Starting at the Bottom

                Peter King, MMQB/SI
                With free agency and the draft in the rearview, here’s an early look at how the teams stack up heading into the 2017 season, beginning with Nos. 17-32. Plus notes on OT changes, Tom Brady concussion talk and more.

                A first in the 20 years that I’ve been doing Monday Morning Quarterback:a split column. Because I wanted to give you my rankings, one to 32, of NFL teams after free agency and the draft, and I wanted to put a little meat on the bone, I’ll give you half the league today and half in a special MMQB columnTuesday. Today: 17 through 32, and I believe my ratings will take me off Mike Maccagnan’s Christmas card list. Tuesday: 1 through 16.
                ...

                20. HOUSTON TEXANS

                Additions: First-round quarterback Deshaun Watson enters choppy waters (more about that in a minute), but there’s no doubt he’s the favorite to be the Texans’ quarterback by Thanksgiving, replacing Tom Savage … Third-rounder D’Onta Foreman will be a good changeup back for Lamar Miller.

                Subtractions: QB Brock Osweiler, one of the worst free-agent signings ever, was dispatched to Cleveland. Siberia may be next … CB A.J. Bouye, the former undrafted college find, defected to Jacksonville for huge money … NT Vince Wilfork wasn’t retained and is mulling retirement.

                Key coaching/front-office moves: Two of them: Bill O’Brien takes over for offensive coordinator George Godsey, who paid with his job for the struggles of Osweiler … And in the front office, vice president of player personnel Brian Gaine left for a parallel job in Buffalo. That’s an odd and disquieting move for the Texans.

                Decisive schedule span: Three measuring-stick games, in Weeks 3 through 5: at New England (second straight year, oddly, with Houston at New England in Week 3), Tennessee, Kansas City. The Texans have lost three to New England in the past two years by 21, 27 and 18. Texans now may be looking up at rising Tennessee in the AFC South; they split seven-point wins last year. And they’re 1-2 against perennial contender KC since 2015.

                Why I have the Texans 20th: I don’t trust them to have good quarterback play, and I’m skeptical of Bill O’Brien’s long-term future. I trust the defense, obviously. But with a shaky passing game (Tom Savage has huge pressure entering the season, obviously), that will exacerbate the worries about the future. Amazing that we’re not even that concerned about the return of J.J. Watt. That’s because the defense proved it could win without Watt. The offense, though, didn’t score 28 points in any of 18 games last year, and how exactly are they significantly improved unless Watson comes on fast? One final thing: When Gaine left for Buffalo last week, I took that as a bad sign for O’Brien’s future. O’Brien liked and respected Gaine. For Gaine to makes a sideways move to the Buffalo Bills may not be a great sign for the long-term prospects of the O’Brien administration.

                Most important factor to this team this season: Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.

                Texans prediction of 10 words or less: Though green, Watson starts 10 games. Inaccurate, but dynamic.​
                If you're not following the Astros, you are doing Houston sports wrong.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Thats probably a little low, but by far the best assessment I've seen of the Texans this offseason. Those 3 games are going to be a good tough stretch. If the texans come out of that 2-1 i would sign off on that today.
                  sigpic

                  Official Texans Beer Thread Creator

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by cuppacoffee View Post
                    I'm drawing a blank here: "The Colts appear to have upgraded at general manager, and new guy Chris Ballard justifiably went defense heavy in the draft. Keeping Andrew Luck off the field a little bit more isn't a bad way to try to keep Andrew Luck safe."

                    What is the reasoning here? Wouldn't an improved O-line and running back be the best way to accomplish this.

                    Can't get my head around the thought that shutting down the other team puts Luck on the field more often.

                    What am I missing here?
                    As Spock would say, This is illogical. If the defense improves, the Offense gets more snaps and the opposing DL get more shots at Luck through an OL which remains porous.

                    The only way they could contest that better defense will not result in more shots at Luck is if they think a better defense will result in lengthening the opponents drives because the defense still can't get the job done and get off the field.
                    https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.M...0&h=300Adopter of #98 D. J. Reader

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by ArkhamKnight92 View Post
                      Thats probably a little low, but by far the best assessment I've seen of the Texans this offseason...
                      I was about to say that's the lowest I've seen... because I don't always read the articles I post... but there's 2 others that have us 20/21.

                      I think 11th is the highest I've seen so far from a major outlet.
                      If you're not following the Astros, you are doing Houston sports wrong.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by ArkhamKnight92 View Post
                        Thats probably a little low, but by far the best assessment I've seen of the Texans this offseason. Those 3 games are going to be a good tough stretch. If the texans come out of that 2-1 i would sign off on that today.
                        They are most definitely paper watching because they have Tennessee ahead of us in darn near every prediction out there. Im like how when we have dominated them clowns for severalyears now. We would've swept them last season too but we didn't take that game serious because we were already in the playoffs.
                        sigpic

                        Bleeds Texans Blue Red and White Blood.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Football Power Index makes its predictions for the 2017 NFL season

                          ESPN Analytics
                          As we edge closer to the start of the NFL season, ESPN's Sports Analytics team has calculated our initial Football Power Index rankings for 2017. In short, a team's FPI rating combines its efficiency ratings on offense, defense and special teams -- based on each unit's expected points added per play -- with the sum of all three squad ratings yielding the overall FPI rating. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.)

                          We then use these ratings to simulate the NFL season 10,000 times in order to derive a team's chances to win its division, make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, etc.

                          Without further delay, here's how FPI sees all 32 teams heading into the 2017 season. If you'd like to skip forward to a more specific breakdown, click the links below:

                          Division breakdowns
                          Playoff probabilities
                          Super Bowl LII probabilities
                          2017 strength of schedule
                          2018 draft probabilities
                          Best/worst matchups



                          ESPN Analytics

                          The gap between the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots at No. 1 (9.2 FPI) and the Packers at No. 2 (4.8) is about as large as the gap between the Packers and the Bengals (0.3), who are ranked 14th. The Pats are one of two teams to rank in the top 10 in projected offense (No. 1), defense (No. 3) and special teams (No. 4). The only other team with top-third units across the board is the Seahawks, who rank No. 8 in offense, No. 6 in defense and No. 5 in special teams.
                          2017 AFC South Projections
                          TEAM WINS LOSSES WIN DIVISION
                          Colts 8.5 7.4 36.0%
                          Titans 8.3 7.7 30.6%
                          Texans 7.8 8.2 22.5%
                          Jaguars 6.8 9.2 10.9%
                          .
                          The AFC South might end up being the NFL's most competitive division in 2017. All four teams have at least a 10 percent chance of winning the title, and none of FPI's predicted division winners has a worse chance to win than the Colts at 36 percent. Part of the reason each team has a chance to compete is the relatively easy schedule each team faces (at least based on what we know about these teams three months before the start of the season). FPI has four of the nine easiest schedules in the league belonging to the members of the AFC South.

                          2017 playoff probabilities
                          2017 AFC Playoff Probability
                          TEAM PLAYOFFS WIN DIVISION WILD CARD NO. 1 SEED
                          Patriots 96.2% 92.3% 3.9% 51.1%
                          Steelers 75.9% 56.0% 19.8% 15.2%
                          Raiders 56.4% 37.4% 19.0% 7.4%
                          Chiefs 56.3% 36.3% 20.1% 6.6%
                          Ravens 48.6% 25.0% 23.6% 4.5%
                          Colts 47.4% 36.0% 11.3% 3.5%
                          Bengals 39.0% 18.4% 20.6% 2.7%
                          Titans 41.8% 30.6% 11.3% 2.5%
                          Broncos 29.8% 15.2% 14.6% 1.9%
                          Texans 32.2% 22.5% 9.7% 1.5%
                          Chargers 24.6% 11.1% 13.5% 1.2%
                          Dolphins 16.7% 4.1% 12.7% 0.8%
                          Bills 14.5% 3.2% 11.3% 0.8%
                          Jaguars 16.6% 10.9% 5.7% 0.4%
                          Jets 2.4% 0.5% 1.9% <0.1%
                          Browns 1.8% 0.6% 1.2% <0.1%


                          Super Bowl
                          Super Bowl LII Probability
                          TEAM REACH SUPER BOWL WIN SUPER BOWL
                          Patriots 50.7% 34.7%
                          Packers 19.6% 9.8%
                          Seahawks 22.8% 9.6%
                          Steelers 15.4% 8.5%
                          Cowboys 13.5% 5.7%
                          Falcons 12.5% 5.2%
                          Raiders 8.1% 4.3%
                          Chiefs 7.7% 4.1%
                          Panthers 6.7% 2.5%
                          Ravens 4.3% 2.0%
                          Vikings 4.6% 1.7%
                          Giants 4.9% 1.7%
                          Colts 3.0% 1.3%
                          Bengals 2.5% 1.0%
                          Eagles 3.5% 1.0%
                          Saints 2.9% 1.0%
                          Titans 2.1% 0.9%
                          Buccaneers 2.6% 0.8%
                          Broncos 1.9% 0.8%
                          Cardinals 2.4% 0.7%
                          Redskins 1.8% 0.7%
                          Texans 1.5% 0.6%
                          Lions 1.9% 0.6%
                          Chargers 1.0% 0.4%
                          Dolphins 0.7% 0.3%
                          Bills 0.5% 0.1%
                          Jaguars 0.3% 0.1%
                          Rams 0.2% <0.1%
                          Bears 0.2% <0.1%
                          Jets 0.1% <0.1%
                          49ers <0.1% <0.1%
                          Browns <0.1% <0.1%
                          ...
                          If you're not following the Astros, you are doing Houston sports wrong.

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                          • #28
                            The NFL counts us out every season. Let me know when something changes.

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                            • #29
                              can someone explain to me how they have the colts as the team to beat in the AFC South??? They have done absolutely nothing to improve where they have been the past 2 years

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Sprtsfanatic View Post
                                can someone explain to me how they have the colts as the team to beat in the AFC South??? They have done absolutely nothing to improve where they have been the past 2 years
                                Because they think Luck is elite.
                                sigpic

                                Bleeds Texans Blue Red and White Blood.

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